Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Alzheimer's Drug Trial Helps Investors Forget Wyeth Troubles

With patent expiration wiping out its blockbusters, Wyeth has been desperate to find new drugs.

It may have one. The beaten-down pharmaceutical company released data Tuesday that brings hope that an Alzheimer's treatment has significant potential.


Wyeth and its Irish partner Elan said Tuesday that a Phase 2 clinical trial of Alzheimer's treatment Bapineuzumab had yielded "encouraging preliminary findings."

Analysts were encouraged as well. Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez upgraded Wyeth to "outperform" because he believes bapineuzumab has long-term potential. Fernandez expects sales of bapineuzumab to be $150.0 million in 2011 and $750.0 million in 2012.

Shares in Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) closed up 5.7%, to 18.18 euros ($28.19), in Dublin. Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) rose 4.8%, or $2.08, to $45.16.

The 18-month trial generated statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits for patients not carrying a gene known as "ApoE4," which apparently accounts for 40% to 70% of Alzheimer's sufferers.

Doug Petkus, a spokesman for Wyeth told Forbes.com that the company was planning to release the complete data in July.

"The data in itself was better than our own expectations, especially in a subset of the patient population that doesn't carry this ApoE4 gene," said Jack Gorman, analyst with Davy Stockbrokers. He told Forbes.com that the drug was still at an early stage of testing, but that it showed signs of being able to change the progression of Alzheimer's rather than only tackling the symptoms.

According to Elan, for non-carriers of ApoE4, the study's preliminary results showed a smaller loss of brain volume among treated patients than for placebo patients. Loss of brain volume is associated with the onslaught of Alzheimer's, and any ability to fight this would be significant.

The results did show an increase in adverse side-effects for carriers of ApoE4, especially at higher doses; some patients who were given the drug experienced "vasogenic edema," or brain swelling, but this did not affect placebo patients. According to an Elan spokesman, this was as expected and did not reach clinically significant levels.

The Bapineuzumab treatment is an antibody designed to clear amyloid from the brain, which is seen as the most likely path to success for fighting Alzheimer's. Amyloids are protein deposits found in the brains of Alzheimer's victims, and the pharmaceutical industry seems confident that a major part of tackling the disease will involve defeating amyloids. (See "Attacking Alzheimer's")

"The preliminary analysis of the Phase 2 study are a continued validation of the amyloid approach to Alzheimer's disease, and an important milestone in our companies' ongoing commitment to bring new treatment options to patients," Elan Chief Executive Kelly Martin said in a press release Tuesday.

Last week, Elan resumed testing of another Alzheimer's treatment, this time a vaccine designed to stimulate the immune system. Testing had been suspended in April after a potentially serious side-effect suffered by one patient, involving skin lesions.

The company has been under pressure to find a new blockbuster now that Effexor, its antidepressant drug, faces patent expiration in 2010. The company also faced generic competition for its blockbuster heartburn drug Protonix at the end of last year.

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